Moneyzine
/Investment Guides /Understanding Price Momentum

Understanding Price Momentum

Moneyzine Editor
Author: 
Moneyzine Editor
5 mins
September 21st, 2023
Advertiser Disclosure

Today's stock market is more than just a place to buy and hold securities. Many investors prefer to move quickly in and out of the market. That's just one reason technical strategies, such as price momentum, have grown in popularity.

In this article, we're going to provide some insights into the investment strategy known as price momentum. We'll explain why some theorists believe this model offers investors a short-term profit opportunity. We'll also talk about the pros and cons of this approach, including the long-term opportunity that price momentum provides the market.

What is Price Momentum?

The theory behind price momentum is relatively simple. Generally, we can talk about it in two ways; the first has to do with buying stocks:

Stocks that had relatively high returns over the past three to twelve months should return to investors above average returns over the next three to twelve months.

The theory also provides guidance on the right time to sell stocks:

Stocks that had relatively poor returns over the past three to twelve months should return to investors below average returns over the next three to twelve months.

This investment strategy was first theorized by Narasimhan Jegadeesh and Sheridan Titman in their publication "Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency," which was published in The Journal of Finance back in March 1993.

Price Momentum Model

The model is based on the assumption the stock market is not completely efficient. This is something that most economists believe to be true. The two most practical explanations for the performance of this model include:

  • Investors are taking advantage of human behavior, including a "herding" mentality and / or an overreaction to news.

  • Investors employing a price momentum strategy are taking on additional risk; therefore, higher returns are required to compensate these investors for the risk they're assuming.

Within their study, Jegadeesh and Titman examined a large number of trading strategies. One of the conclusions from that study is stated below:

Buying past winners, and selling past losers, allowed investors to achieve above average returns over the period 1956 to 1989. In particular, stocks that were classified based on their prior 6-month performance, and held for 6 months realized an excess return of over 12% per year on average.

The Momentum Formula

Technical stock analysts understand the value this particular technique provides. They're constantly crunching numbers to see if patterns emerge. The actual formula for calculating price momentum is really quite simple, and takes the form:

M = CP - CPn

Where:

  • M = Momentum

  • CP = Closing price in the current period

  • CPn = Closing price N periods ago

For example, if a stock was trading at $35 per share six months ago, and is currently trading at $40 per share, then its six-month price momentum would be 40 minus 35 or 5.

Unfortunately, this formula is not normalized, and this makes it difficult to compare stocks selling at different price points. A stock experiencing a 1% price movement from $300 to $303 would have a momentum value of three. A second stock experiencing a 100% increase in price from $3 to $6 also has a momentum value of three.

Rate of Change Formula

One of the ways technical stock analysts can work around this problem is by calculating a rate of change value, which normalizes momentum:

RoC = (CP - CPn) / CPn

Where:

  • RoC = Rate of Change

  • CP = Closing price in the current period

  • CPn = Closing price N periods ago

Using the example above, the stock selling at $303 per share that was trading at $300 six months ago would have a Rate of Change of 3 / 300 or 1%, while the second stock would have a Rate of Change of 3 / 3 or 100%.

Momentum and Moving Averages

A second way that stock analysts use price momentum is in conjunction with moving averages. Here the technical analyst makes a series of price momentum calculations and plots these along with a moving average of the momentum.

For example, the plot might contain 28-day moving averages along with daily price momentum figures. Buy signals can be triggered when price momentum travels above its moving averages, and stays there for several trading days. Sell signals can be triggered when momentum travels below its moving average.

Contrarian Investing

As mentioned in the beginning of this article, this model tells investors they should buy past winners and sell past losers. Because this theory is based on past price performance, or historical market information, price momentum is a trading model that technical analysts would follow. Fundamental analysts believe that a stock is bought and sold based on its intrinsic value, including the company's potential to produce profits for its shareholders in the future.

Fortunately, fundamental analysts can also use price momentum to their advantage by adopting what is termed a contrarian investing strategy. Contrarian investors take the opposite approach that a theory advocates. For example, a fundamental analyst might conclude:

A stock that has been rising may now be overvalued, while a stock that has been falling may be undervalued.

One could argue the further a stock moves from its true market value, the greater the opportunity for profits. By tracking price momentum, and using this as a screening tool, fundamental analysts can then assess if a stock is truly undervalued or overvalued by studying the company's long-term financial health and earnings power.


About the Author - Understanding Price Momentum


Explore Investing Further

Trading has never been easier, thanks to the rise of online platforms that enable you to buy and sell various assets at the click of a button. But with so many options available, it can be challenging to decide which platform is right for you.
Looking for a way to avoid swap fees while trading forex?
Below listed are the small reviews of the top 10 ETF brokers available across the United States.
Our top beginner's pick for copy trading is eToro. Read on for more details, plus seven good alternatives.
Swing trading stocks can be a great way for investors to take advantage of short-term stock market movements and gain significant returns. If you're interested in swing trading, the key to success lies in selecting the right stocks to buy and sell quickly for a profit.
The table below lists the best stock picks under $2, listed on public exchanges.
The table below lists the best stock picks under $1, listed both on public and OTC exchanges.
This section will highlight the best EV-trading penny stocks available in the United States.
The demand for sustainable energy has grown rapidly in recent years. This has resulted in increased scrutiny of the automotive market. As a result, the electric vehicle (EV) industry has made significant advancements.
Intelligent Bio Solutions Inc. is a life sciences company, founded in 2016 with headquarters in New York and is engaged in performing diagnostic tests, real-time monitoring, and non-invasive surgery for its patients. The firm has developed a CoV-2 Biosensor, which can be used in RNA virus detection.
Hour Loop was founded in 2013 with headquarters in Redmond, Washington. It’s an online retailer involved in e-commerce in the United States that hit the public markets on Jan 7th of 2022. The company sells home/garden decor, electronic products, kitchenware, and apparel through walmart.com, amazon.com, and hourloop.com.

Related Content

How to Make a Million Dollars in 10 Years
Truthfully, this title should actually be “How to Make a Million Dollars in 10 Years Without Going Into Debt", but that is just getting a little too winded for my liking. It’s true though!
March 26th, 2024
How to Apply Maslow’s Hierarchy to Your Money This Year
You might vaguely remember your psychology teacher talking about Maslow. He pointed at a picture of a triangle as you nodded off in the back of the school room.
March 27th, 2024
How to Tackle Multiple Savings Goals
When there’s only so much money to go around, there are often multiple savings goals competing for your money. Think of the young professional who’d like to get a more reliable car, buy a house, and save for retirement. Or consider the young family that’s saving for college, retirement, and a bigger house.
March 22nd, 2024
The Countdown to Early Retirement: 10 Expenses to Eliminate
Dreaming of waving goodbye to the daily grind five years ahead of schedule? The road to early retirement is paved with more than good intentions; it requires a meticulously crafted strategy with surprising twists. It's not solely about what you should be doing—like diligently saving a portion of your income or investing wisely—but also about what you need to stop doing.
March 22nd, 2024
Biden Or Trump: Who Is Better For The Economy And Stocks?
Yup. This is one of those articles. It's an election year, and here in the U.S., we get to decide which old dude who’s been alive long enough to remember when there were only 48 states in the U.S. will be the leader of the free world.
March 19th, 2024

Contributors

Moneyzine 2024. All Rights Reserved.